Will they/Won't they?
My thoughts on the fringe playoff teams, and where I think they land come April.
This season has had its fair share of surprises in the standings, and I thought it would be fun to take a gander at each team on the edges of the playoff cutoff and see where I thought they’d land come playoff time.
To define what teams I have classified as fringe, I’m looking at teams who have been, or currently are, flirting with a wildcard spot, but also aren’t locked into a spot. Teams like Washington and Winnipeg have been holding at or near top spots for the whole season, so they’re hardly fringe. Likewise, teams like Chicago, San Jose, or Buffalo have struggled all season, and don’t hold a snowball’s chance in hell of making it in.
As of writing this (Jan. 21st), here are the current standings in each conference:
Currently, Ottawa and Boston hold the spots in the East, with Colorado and Calgary holding onto the West. Worth noting is that in the east, Ottawa and Boston are both only a single point away from overtaking Tampa for third in their division, and a similar situation holds for Colorado with Dallas in that third divisional spot.
Eastern Conference:
The Eastern Conference is surprisingly competitive this year, at least in terms of the wild card spots. There are certainly some teams surprising us with their play this season (for multiple reasons), and a couple of teams that probably weren’t expecting to be on the fringe list (again, for multiple reasons). Let’s have a look.
Tampa:
It’s been a long time since Tampa has been at risk of missing the playoffs, but the times have changed for them. While I wouldn’t call them fringe necessarily, as I do believe they’ll be in the playoffs come April, an unfortunate injury or two could see them fall out, and I’m sure Ottawa and Boston are both too close for comfort for them. Still, they’re one of the highest-scoring teams in the league currently, and have a still-solid core that is a threat even with Stamkos’ departure to Nashville. I think they’ll end up in the top 3 by the end, but they’re anything but a sure thing for a deep run.
Boston:
I don’t understand Boston. On one hand, they’ve long since seen the departure of stalwart forward and Captain Patrice Bergeron, have what’s considered to be a fairly weak depth, and even fired coach Jim Montgomery early in the season (despite his successes with the team). And yet, they hold onto a fairly decent spot in the standings and continue to be a threat to the teams they play. This is still a team far removed from their historical season a couple years back, and their lack of depth is beginning to show. Still, their core has experience in adverse situations, and I do think they find themselves a wildcard spot by the end of the season
.Ottawa:
At the beginning of the season, Ottawa was a team I was hoping would take that next step in their rebuild. Additions like Linus Ullmark in goal gave some stability to a team that desperately needed it, and the hiring of Travis Green was seen as a positive to help a young core move to the next level.
The Sens haven’t made it entirely easy on themselves though. While they’re one of the better teams in goals against (2.74 per game average), they’re on the low end in goals scored per game (22nd at 2.85). They’ve been playing better hockey lately, however, and I think the right trade for someone to bolster their offense would help propel this team into the playoffs. Even with their current group, they’re playing well enough to hold onto that spot.
Montreal:
Man, Montreal has been playing some really exciting hockey lately. Mid-December, they were dead last in the East, but now they’re riding a hot goaltender in rookie Jakub Dobeš (I figured out how to do accents on my Mac), and have won seven of their last ten, propelling them to two points behind Boston for that final spot.
As much as I love the Habs, I cannot see this lasting into the playoffs. This team has an exciting future with Caufield, Suzuki, Laine, Hudson, and more. And I think next season could be the season where they begin really coming into their own. The real question is, is Jakub Dobeš the answer in goal that they’ve been so desperately needing? He looked shaky at times in his last start against the Rangers, although he also made some 10-bell saves to earn that win.
I don’t think the Habs make the playoffs, but Dobeš will certainly make it fun for them down the stretch. I think they’re in the conversation next season, however.
NY Rangers:
This is another team that has been all over the place this season and made some really baffling moves. I’ve been of the mindset for a couple of years that the Rangers’ assertion that they were finished their rebuild (which had come way more quickly than expected) was a bit of an exaggeration, but they played well enough to earn some good spots in a Metro division that has been fairly weak in recent years.
In 24-25 though, we’re seeing a retooled and resurgent Washington, a still-strong Carolina, and a New Jersey team really coming of age and flexing their might. The loss of Trouba and Kakko is probably looked at differently, depending on whether you root for the Rags or not. You also have to consider their goaltending situation. If Shesterkin is healthy and playing to his potential, this team becomes incredibly hard to play against. If not, they have to rely on an aging Jonathan Quick, who has looked increasingly beatable recently. Factor in that the Rangers goal scorers aren’t scoring enough for them (currently ranked 20th in the league with 2.89 per game), and this team’s weaknesses really start to show. I believe they have the talent to make it, but ultimately will find themselves out in April.
Columbus:
Considering the tragic start that Columbus had on a season filled with promise, it’s a miracle they’re even in this conversation. I had heard one commentator mention before the season that Columbus could literally do nothing wrong this season, considering they would be coping with the tragic deaths of Johnny Gaudreau (and his brother Matthew). Yet here we are in mid-January and Columbus has been quietly making themselves a pest to the rest of the East, and are a single point out of the wildcard spot. While they’re scoring a a pretty good rate (ranked 8th in the league at 3.26 per game), they’re near the bottom in goals against (3.34 per game). This is a team that I very much want to see go on some crazy Cinderella run in the playoffs in honor of one of my favorite players to play the game, but I can’t see it happening. But still, good on them for even playing this well. Maybe they’re closer in their rebuild than we all realized.
The rest:
The rest of the East are teams I don’t think have any real chances at making it. Pittsburgh can talk about playoffs all they want, but this is a team that can’t keep the puck out of their own net. Ditto for Philadelphia, who I’m not even sure what they’re doing these days. Detroit was better than this I thought, but today they sit one point ahead of the Islanders for second-last in the conference. And then poor Buffalo…man I really wanted them to be better this season.
Western Conference:
Unlike the East, the Western Conference has a greater disparity in points between teams, and far fewer teams I’d personally classify as “outsiders but still have a solid chance to sneak in.”
Dallas:
Dallas is perennially a playoff contender due to their stalwart lineup of talent that seems to quietly play well every season. Jake Oettinger is capable of being a lights-out tendy as we know. They’re not without their weaknesses, but I can’t imagine Dallas missing out on the playoffs this season. How deep they go is another topic entirely.
Los Angeles:
In the midst of the tragic devastation the people of LA are facing, their hockey team has continued to play solid hockey throughout the season. While they’re not scoring a load of goals per game (19th in the league with 2.93), they’re in the top-3 in fewest goals against. They’re also riding a resurgent season for goaltender Darcy Kuemper. I expect them to hold onto that third divisional spot.
Colorado:
A miserable start to the Avs’ season has seemingly turned around with the acquisition of (in my opinion) woefully underrated goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood has been just what the doctor ordered for Nathan MacKinnon and friends, and they’ve began playing better hockey since. I think a team with MacKinnon, Makar, and Rantanan have too much talent to not make the playoffs. The big question is, will it be through the wild card or will they overtake Dallas for that third seed? My money is on the wild card spot.
Calgary:
Here’s another team that seems to be making a comeback after a poor showing last season. Riding an excellent season by goaltender Dustin Wolf, Calgary currently holds onto that second wildcard spot in the West. The real question for them is scoring. At 2.60 goals per game on average (fifth-worst in the league), they’ll need to continue relying heavily on their defensive play and goaltending. I don’t know if it can last, and I don’t think Calgary holds onto this spot much longer.
Vancouver:
Sort of the opposite of Calgary, the Canucks are a team that relapsed a bit after a good season/playoff run last year. Rumors of locker room drama aside, I think this team is another one that isn’t too many pieces away from another good playoff push. If they’re truly looking to offload J.T. Miller, I think they can get something good in return to make up for him. The issue is, will Thatcher Demko be healthy for the playoffs? Even without him last year, the Canucks still did well enough, but they’re (obviously) a much better team with him between the pipes. I think they’ll squeak into that final wildcard spot in the end.
The rest:
St. Louis, Seattle, and Utah are all sniffing around but I don’t think any of them have the right pieces to mount a push for that final spot. Same goes for Anaheim. San Jose is actually fun to watch (or more fun than last year anyway) but obviously have a long way to go. And Chicago continues to tank like the Wirtz family wants them to do in order to build more draft capital and look like they’re trying to do something worth a shit while not actually adding meaningful pieces around Connor Bedard.
So what do you all think? Am I talking out of my ass, or do you think another team will fill these playoff spots? Let me know in the comments. And as always, thanks for reading!